With the Oscars just around the corner and the nominations now set in stone, 2023 treated moviegoers to easily the strongest year for film since the pandemic. From worldwide phenomena like “Barbenheimer”, to dazzling directorial debuts such as Celine Song (Past Lives) and Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), to stunning breakout performances including Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), this year’s Oscars are looking up to be an extremely competitive outing. While snubs are inevitable and sure to leave critics and viewers displeased, every nomination was genuinely well deserved. The truth is, 2023 was a cutthroat year for movies, with one of the most impressive best picture lineups in a long time. On the brighter side, there are so many amazing films and performances that absolutely deserve to be honored this awards season. Below I’ll go through my best guess for the winners of five major categories, as well as my personal favorite nominee.

Best Picture

Prediction: Oppenheimer. In what was once a close race between many nominees, it’s clear Oppenheimer has pulled away as the frontrunner – and for good reason. The film boasts an other-worldy cast, a powerhouse lead performance, consistently engaging direction, and cinematography so impressive that they were able to recreate an atomic explosion with zero CGI. With critics and viewers both in awe of the three hour historical biopic, it seems like all of the stars are aligned to award Christopher Nolan with his first Best Picture.

My Pick: Poor Things. An absurdist dark comedy that follows a woman who gets the ultimate second chance at life, Poor Things is simply a once-in-a-lifetime movie. I went into this movie with extremely high expectations, given director Yorgos Lanthimos has consistently created some of the most wild, thought-provoking, and creative films of the decade, yet it exceeded every pre-existing hope I had. The almost two and a half hour run time flew by for me, as I was completely immersed in the futuristic technicolor world of the movie, accompanied by a cast of eccentric characters, a masterfully written script full of humor, and possibly the best score I’d heard all year. If I could only recommend one movie for you to watch this year, this would be the one.

Best Leading Actor

Prediction: Paul Giamatti. The category for best actor this year is an extremely tight two-horse race between two subtle performances that completely command the screen. Ultimately, I think the Academy will go with Giamatti. In his humorous and quirky portrayal of a curmudgeonly boarding school professor in The Holdovers, Giamatti has racked up many nominations and wins in the award shows leading up to the Oscars. He won the Golden Globe for his respective category and even beat out Cilian Murphy at the Critics Choice Awards. Another factor in favor of Giamatti’s win is his long dedication to the industry. Giamatti has only been nominated once ever, despite his countless acclaimed performances in other movies. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Academy treats his award as a sort of “career” honor.

My Pick: Cilian Murphy. In being cast as the lead role in Oppenheimer, Cilian Murphy was dealt a very difficult task. Playing J. Robert Oppenheimer, a historical figure who was notoriously understated and quiet, yet extremely conflicted and complex, was a near impossible challenge, yet Murphy nailed every aspect. With a face born for the big screen, Murphy makes it impossible to ignore his performance, despite barely ever raising his voice to a yell. He allows the audience to feel his confliction throughout the entire duration, even if only through his facial expressions. Although this is Murphy’s first ever nomination and really his first leading role, he’s just as deserving of the award as any other actor in his category.

Best Leading Actress

Prediction: Lily Gladstone. To be widely regarded as the best performance in a movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro is no small feat. In her first major acting role, Lily Gladstone shines in her role as an Osage Indian woman in Killers of the Flower Moon, a performance garnering tons of acclaim from critics. Her committed performance reveals the true horrors of the Osage Murders in the 1920s, going as far as to learn the Osage language for her role. Gladstone is the first Native American woman to ever be nominated in the Best Actress Category, and it would be a triumph to award her for a performance that will surely have a lasting effect on her culture. When asked on the future of Indigenous actors, Gladstone said, “It’s circumstantial that I’m the first, and I’m so very grateful. I just know that I’m not going to be the last, not by a long shot.”

My Pick: Emma Stone. Leading Actress is yet another category where two extremely impressive performances are neck and neck. Initially Emma Stone was perceived to be the frontrunner for the category until all the buzz for Lily Gladstone, but under no circumstance should her performance be swept under the rug. In Poor Things, Stone plays the part of a young woman with the brain of a baby, and her all-out commitment to the role was no doubt a massive factor in the success of the film. In a role that could otherwise be considered annoying or even offensive, Stone strikes the perfect balance between humor and realness, leaving audiences fascinated as she explores the world around her and what liberation truly means.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr. In yet another stellar performance that helped Oppenheimer become the frontrunner for this awards season, Downey Jr. makes everything out of his small screen time in the movie. Although he’s only on screen for about twenty minutes, his jealous and hateful presence lingers throughout the entire film. He excels as the antagonist of the film, Lewis Strauss, whose vengeance against Oppenheimer fuels the crucial third-act security hearing. Downey Jr. additionally has never won an Oscar, making his case for the award all the better.

My Pick: Mark Ruffalo. If you couldn’t tell yet, I liked Poor Things quite a lot. Mark Ruffalo is no exception. Ruffalo plays the sleazy, womanizing lawyer, Duncan Wedderburn, who is responsible for some of the funniest lines of the movie. Although I don’t think he has any chance of winning, I’m extremely glad to see him pick up a nomination. As someone who has grown up pretty much only seeing him as The Hulk in Marvel movies, I was so happy that he was finally able to escape the MCU and do fun roles like this, where he’s able to put his great acting skills on full display, and hold back absolutely nothing.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. This year’s Best Supporting Actress category is very much akin to last year’s Best Supporting Actor category, in the fact that there is only one clear choice. Much like Ke Huy Quan’s breakthrough supporting role in last year’s Everything Everywhere All At Once, Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s breakthrough supporting role in The Holdovers makes her nearly a sure thing to clinch her category. Randolph plays the main cook of the boarding school who recently lost her son to war, effortlessly balancing lightheartedness and solemnity throughout the film. Randolph’s character is both extremely likable and thought-provoking, exploring themes of race, grief, and relationships. If I had to bet money on one award, I’d go all in on Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

My Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Nothing much more to add here, as Randolph was easily my favorite performance of the five nominees. While Emily Blunt had an extremely strong performance in Oppenheimer, the support for her performance is mainly attributed to a single three minute monologue towards the end of the movie. While it would be cool to see Blunt win an award for her first ever nomination, just about every moviegoer in America seems dead set on Randolph, me included.