It’s 11:50 a.m. on a Sunday in the fall. The chili is on the stove, and the couch is packed with everyone waiting for the the Bears-Packers civil war. All of a sudden you forget something: your fantasy team.

With millions of Americans ranging from lawyers to stockbrokers to students joining the fantasy football craze, it’s no surprise it’s a big deal here at York.

As many of you know, last year’s top player was Peyton Manning. He broke records, but statistics suggest that it won’t happen again. For example, the last player who has ran for at least 1,600 yards in back-to-back years was Eric Dickerson in 1983 and 1984. That’s a once-in-a generation occurrence.

Before the recent explosion of passing, no quarterback ever threw for 40 touchdowns two years in a row. But now, receivers like Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, and Dez Bryant, who all have good-not-great quarterbacks, all had nearly or over 200 fantasy points last year. So here’s my point: the league is changing.

Of course, what’s also changed during the offseason is the teams itself. Many players who had big seasons last year are on new teams with a bigger role.

The problem is how fantasy players equate a guy who has a phenomenal season with a great team to the same guy who joined a new team and has a totally different role, but is still worth spending a high draft pick on.

If you’re reading between the lines, the two players being referenced here are Eric Decker and DeSean Jackson, amongst others. These guys all had great seasons last year-but they had great support. Decker had Peyton Manning throwing to him, and Jackson was a core piece of the wacky-but-vaunted Chip Kelly offense.

But now? Decker is the #1 wide reciever with the Jets, with either Geno Smith or Mike Vick throwing to him. Big difference? Incredibly. And Jackson will tandem with Pierre Garcon in Washington, a move that could pay big dividends. But now, he (and Decker for that matter) are in a new system, have a totally different role, and have either not-so-great passers or guys coming off injury (RG3). So, to spend a high pick on these guys seems absurd.

Now for the fabled sleepers that get you to that $100 money pot that everyone wants. There could be quite a few mid-season pickups that might help you achieve fantasy football glory, and what’s a better way to start off than with something controversial?

Well here it is: the Houston Texans defense. The team that went 2-14 last year drafted, with the first pick, the ultimate complement to superstar JJ Watt-Jadeveon Clowney.

And with that, they have one of the best front fours in football. And here’s the best part–they play in the AFC South. That means four games against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Throw in games against the Radiers, Browns, and Bills, and there are quite a few potentially good games fantasy-wise.

Some other potential grabs are Brandin Cooks, who has been overshadowed as a rookie receiver by Sammy Watkins, but has a much better QB throwing to him in Drew Brees, and Carlos Hyde, who could become the next Frank Gore for the 49ers.

So that’s it. Good luck this year.